Is India losing grip on coronavirus?

                                         

Coronavirus cases have reached to 1.2Lakhs as of now, and already 3.5 thousand people died in India because of this pandemic. India is now only behind by 10 countries to register a maximum number of cases and china is not on the list. India has already surpassed china [china registered around 83 thousand cases. But there are many douts on their registered cases and the United States of America also raised doubts that maybe china hiding real numbers. Though there is no such proof has been given by either USA or any organization. It is also facts that currently in china many places are open including Wuhan which was considered the origin of this corona virus] and if we consider active cases [67K] then India Only behind by USA[1142K], Russia[223K], Brazil[164K] and France[89K], and become 5th country in the world with most active cases.

From the last few days, India has been registering around 5 thousand to 6 thousand cases every day. The worse thing is if we see the graph of registering new cases from the beginning, the graph should go downward [which indicate that the pandemic is in control and the number of cases is reduceing] but it is not even flat after more than 2 months [Which means India is not able to stop and break the chain but it is spreading more and more in community and increasing number of case day by day instead of reducing]. See the graph of South Korea which is a perfect example of the curve getting flat after a sudden rise in corona cases.

Corona cases vs Time (in a day), India

Corona cases vs Time (in a day), South Korea

Why suddenly cases are increasing instead of reducing?

Pravasi Majdur demanding to go home

Not only because of the corona, but India is also in a vulnerable situation because of the economic slowdown. India had imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the world for more than 30 days.[World Health Organization(WHO) has also praised the Indian government for its early lockdown and the way it was executed and imposed on people. which had necessary for the second most populated country]. This decision and many other steps which have been taken in initial time definitely saved many lives, if we see the example of Italy and the current situation of the USA. 

But we have to pay the price in terms of the economy [Prime minister had mentioned this in his speech also]. All businesses and factories have stopped except the IT sector where people can work from their homes. Which leads to unemployment in the small manufacturing sector and shops. Worker of those factories and small stores, want to go to their own village. Because many of them have land to do farming and they can easily survive there but expenditure in other cities where they are working is very high and if income stops, for any people it is difficult to live in such cities. Recently in Mumbai, one actor had done suicide and even neighbors did not help him because they had thought that, he might be infected with corona. If educated people also can treat this way their neighbor, then just imagine the situation about labor workers.

Limitation of State Governments and Politics

The state government also has many limitations to help all labor workers as many of them do not have a ration card of that state.[Government recently announced to make one nation one ration card to tackle this problem in future] All worker does not have a bank account so they might do not get help from the central government in the form of a cash deposit.[Thanks to the current government, at list 5 to 6 crore bank accounts have open in the last six years]. State government or central government, does not have any register, where all labor worker's information is present such as an address, belonging state, the sector in which they are working, and current financial condition. This again proves that we should have a national register in which every such information linked with id like Aadhar. In such a case, the government easily estimates the number and reaches to such people easily. But many people opposed NPR before this pandemic, whose data may help in this situation. 

This problem leads to resume some trains by the central government [many states also demanded because labors were not cooperating and demanding to go their own state. Later politics also started.] This increase more chances of coronavirus spread as many laborers came together to submit the forms or get on board in trains or to protest and demand. India has around 8 corers laborers in different states. That is the reason if we see the coronavirus cases graph, the number of new cases increased after 3rd May. Many states which were earlier asking for resuming trains so that they could send laborers back to their state, now not approving trains to get workers from another state, as they have to facilitate all labor to 14-day quarantine with food. It also increases the possibility of new coronavirus cases in that state. which directly impact on CM's performance of handling coronavirus and later it will be costly in the election.[these are some possibilities for not allowing many trains by state. There are maybe other reasons too. ]

These all events are responsible for high coronavirus cases in recent times after lockdown 2 which ends on 3rd May.

Why other countries and WHO praising India for fighting against the corona pandemic?

But things currently in India's favor is death rate which is very low compared to other countries. In India, 93.3 % of people recovered out of all concluded cases [42 % of total cases] and 6.7 %[~3600] of people died. 6.33 % of the total active cases [4200] are only in a critical stage and only 3.4%[~2300 people] of the total active case required a ventilator[or oxygen support]. [India already improved health care system in time get because of the first two lockdowns which slowdown coronavirus spread. Today India is an exporter of PPE kits and mask. Many Indian companies made indigenous testing kits. India also helping many countries in the world and in the result, 192 countries voted Indian Health Minister Dr. Harsh Vardhan for WHO executive board chairman.] In fact, till 22nd May, India tested around 27 Lakhs people and only 5% of them found positive which also indicates that coronavirus still not spread as much as any other country. On average to find 5 positive cases India doing 100 tests. If we compare with the USA [The country which has done maximum testing]they are finding 12 positive cases in 100 tests.

If the current situation compares with other countries, definitely the Indian government have worked better than them in the initial condition. But if the analysis is done for today's situation and predicts the next few weeks, India is in a very vulnerable situation.

What may possibly go wrong in fighting against the corona pandemic?

The Indian government and many state governments are already given much relaxation in lockdown to save the economy. India's population is more than 130 cores and most of the cities are densely populated. If the current trend will be going on and only 0.5 % of the population[~33.5 crore] of highly infected states [Maharastra, Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, and Tamil Nadu] get infected [not died only infected and maybe 80 % of total cases will asymptomatic cases in which quarantine with basic medicine is enough to cure them] still the total tally will reach to 16.7 lakhs [It also looks very practical scenario if we see the example of the USA where already 16 Lkhas of people found positive and the USA have the population around ~33 crores]. If we consider 10 days as doubling rate[which can be controlled by the government by controlling a number of testing done in one day. ]after one month only, cases will reach to around 10 Lakhs. Currently, 6.7% [of total concluded cases] of people are dying which may improve over time and reach to half of that rate[3.5 % considering the doctors gaining more and more experience and new medicine [recently Bangladesh doctors found new medicine which improves patients quickly] discover which helps to cure patients, though around 35 thousand people can die after all cases are concluded which will register till next one month.

Which is also huge in number and all people should understand that corona is deadly even though death rate may remain low in India, because of huge population and nature of this virus which can quickly spread to the people, many people can lose their life.

How can be avoided worse situation?

Indian central government and many state government had taken many initial steps which have prevented many lives and do not leave any stone to unturn. Lockdown can not be imposed for lifetime and medicine or vaccine is not yet discovered. The only precaution can prevent corona disease. Instead of tiring by two lockdown and taking coronavirus casually as many people are getting recovered, people should take it more seriously and until medicine or vaccine does not find out, people have to impose self lockdown on them and integrate many habits in day to day life such as wash hand frequently, use mask whenever go outside and maintain social distancing. Use some recommended food and items in day to day life, which improve the immunity system. Do yoga every day. These are some simple habit if integrated into our lives we can save the life of our and other too. 

The government is doing what they should do but they have their own limitation. People have to do recommended things and follow all instructions seriously to save a life because no one can be sure whether they belong to 3% who will die or 97% who will recover.

STAY HOME STAY SAFE

By Manish Joshi | Writer | Engineer